Oct4

Unforeseen Events

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Bad news is often delivered to investors with the descriptive cause being ‘unforeseen events’.

Economists revise their forecasts due to ‘unforeseen events’.

Analysts alter their ‘buy, hold and sell’ call due to ‘unforeseen events’.

Researchers provide a different rating and alter their recommended list due to ‘unforeseen events’.

Ironically, many in these professions justify their keep on the premise that they can predict the future by either choosing the best asset class, the best stocks or the best fund managers to invest in.

But ‘unforeseen events’ will always mean that no-one can accurately predict the future with any consistency.  (Well we haven’t found anyone).

Before following someone’s predictions, analyse their value proposition and motivation.  Try to identify if their promises are realistic, or if ‘unforeseen events’ are more likely.

If you don’t know how to do this, there are people who can help guide you.

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